Gail Model for 5 Year Risk of Breast Cancer (1999 paper)

Age Menarche Age at menarche >=14 years old (1.00)

12-13 years old (1.10)

<12 years old (1.21)
Num Biops
Age FLB Num Rels
Atyp Hyper No biopsies (1.00)

At least one biopsy and no atypical hyperplasia found in any biopsy specimen (0.93)

No atypical hyperplasia found and hyperplasia status unknown for at least one biopsy specimen (1.00)

Atypical hyperplasia found in at least one biopsy specimen (1.82)
Baseline Age Race

Relative Risk  
Five Year Risk  
Decimal Precision  
  • Be sure to go through all of the pull-down choices--some select more than one risk factor that are linked (see below.)
  • The Num Biops term refers to the number of prior breast biopsies performed. It is linked to the Age at Counseling.
  • The Age FLB Num Rels term refers to the subject's age when she had her first live birth. It is linked to the number of her relatives that have been diagnosed with breats cancer.
  • the Baseline Age Race term is the subject's age. It is linked to the subject's race.

Equations used
RelativeRisk = AgeMenarche * NumBiops * AgeFLBNumRels * AtypHyper
FiveYearRisk = RelativeRisk * BaselineAgeRace


Calculation Details and Variables
  • Equation parameters such as Age Menarche, have two or more discrete values that may be used in the calculation. The numbers in the parentheses e.g. (1.00), represent the values that will be used.

  1. Gail MH, Constantino JP, Bryant J, et al. Weighing the Risks and Benefits of Tamoxifen Treatment for Preventing Breast Cancer. J. National Cancer Institute. 1999; V91, #21, pages 1829-1846. PubMed ID: 10547390 PubMed Logo
  2. Costantino JP, Gail MH, Pee D, et al. Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999 Sep 15;91(18):1541-8. PubMed ID: 10491430 PubMed Logo



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